BCW Political Insight: The Endgame for Prime Minister Boris Johnson?January 25, 2022

Within the Conservative Party, especially Johnson's traditional allies in the pro-Brexit wing, it’s now clear it’s a matter of when, not if, the PM goes.

One Conservative MP said to a BCW colleague: “We’re like wildebeests, the ones you see in nature programmes. One minute they’re quietly munching on grass, the next all of them are running off in a panic. We’re in huddle mode at the moment but it won’t be long”.

Boris Johnson’s body language at Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday spoke volumes. He was visibly deflated, far from his normal buoyant self. The session started with a very carefully worded apology for the rule breaking No. 10 party – or ‘work event’ as the PM termed it.

But the strategy remained the same – everyone must wait for the report of the inquiry by senior civil servant Sue Gray. This may have bought Mr. Johnson some time, but even he knows this is the endgame for him, and he is caught with no safe or undamaging move left.

Yes, he could hang on until the local elections in May. Yes, he might be lucky that no challenger will trigger a challenge. Yes, he may well be hoping that a civil servant doesn’t want to bring down an elected PM.

But, all that accepted, it’s clear the public wants him gone. It’s entirely possible that the slide in voting intentions continues, and that the 28% of support in the latest polling that he enjoys now is a moment in a fall, not the floor.

Former PM Theresa May’s Conservatives were polling just 17% in May 2019, in the dog days of her premiership. She was much less divisive then than Boris Johnson is now. 

MPs will begin returning to their constituencies today, and in council buildings and church halls across the country, their surgeries will be full of rage against the Prime Minister.

Everyone they meet will have a story of where they followed the rules, at great personal cost. In marginal seats, that anger will translate to fear for 2024. The Conservative Party is nothing but ruthless in disposing of leaders whom they perceive to have become unelectable.

The Scottish Conservatives have pre-empted this. They have known that brand Boris has been toxic to their voters for years. Their only hope of holding their seats is for him to go, and fast. Douglas Ross MSP MP, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, has made the only decision he could by calling for the PM to go and, unsurprisingly, his fellow Scottish Tories have backed him up.

But, to that all-important timeline for Boris’ exit, no one knows how many letters of no confidence Sir Graham Brady has received. The Chair of the 1922 Committee of Conservative MPs, which oversees Conservative leadership elections, is notoriously tight-lipped. Guesses range from four to the high 20s, with 54 the magic number to trigger a confidence vote amongst Conservative MPs. If the PM loses that vote, then a leadership election to choose his successor is called.

In many ways, the precise timing doesn’t matter. There is no way back for this Prime Minister’s authority, and his party and government know that. What authority does his whipping operation have? Why would any minister announce an unpopular policy? What patronage can Johnson offer that isn’t liable to be stripped away by the next Prime Minister?

Importantly, Labour Leader Keir Starmer’s performance at Prime Minister's Questions rose to the moment, bolstering their biggest poll lead since 2008. Labour looks more like a government-in-waiting as each day passes with a credible ministerial team at all levels for the first time in a decade. Starmer’s brand of unassuming, honest leadership is his single greatest asset in differentiating himself from the Conservatives. It is not an exaggeration to say that now is the time for businesses to audit their political engagement and ask if they are truly prepared for the possibility of the first Labour government in 14 years.

For the Conservative contenders, there’s already talk of Cabinet Ministers lining up teams for a run at the top job. Key will be the attitudes of the membership that decide who becomes leader. Do they want a Brexiteer or a competent moderate? Also looming large is Northern Ireland. Boris Johnson has been unable to deregulate as promised after Brexit, because Northern Ireland currently must ‘shadow’ EU rules. Does Brussels now play tough and wait for a ‘softer’ Prime Minister in talks around the future of the province?

This in the short term could prove a headache for one would-be contender, Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary charged with leading talks over the Northern Ireland ‘Protocol’. Her main rival, Rishi Sunak’s conditional support of the PM (until Sue Gray delivers her report) was telling.

The Prime Minister can be toppled if just a single major Cabinet player resigns from his cabinet. Whether it is his Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, or Foreign Minister, Liz Truss, makes no difference. If one of them goes soon and a wave of resignations follow, Boris Johnson will be sunk once and for all.