BCW Political Insight: Policy Momentum Paramount in New-Look No 10February 7, 2022

Moving on

As the political ramifications of ‘Partygate’ continue to engulf Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the beginnings of an operation to resuscitate his administration and provide some much-needed structure and direction has been put in place. It’s clear the UK Government is attempting to change the narrative of the last few months.

Over the weekend a raft of new hires has been introduced into the Downing Street operation in order to clear out the ‘dead wood’ engulfed in months of scandal, as well as aiming to provide some confidence to Conservative Members of Parliament whose faith in Boris Johnson’s leadership continues to waver.

Policy Paralysis

The last few months have seen policy clashes between the Prime Minister and his Chancellor Rishi Sunak, huge Conservative arguments about tax rises, all in the context of multiple plots to remove Johnson. The Chancellor has also chosen this week to delay the NHS recovery plan, one of the most important policy announcements the UK Government will make in this Parliament.

So what does this reshuffle mean for decision makers in Whitehall, and by extension, business leaders? Post ‘Partygate’, the UK Government must get on with the business of governing and delivering on a manifesto that is barely two years old. They have to do this whilst taking truculent Cabinet Ministers and government departments along with them - reluctant to act speedily while the potential for a leadership challenge remains.

Policy opportunities

This Conservative Government was elected on three pillars – Brexit, ‘Levelling Up’ and a cultural reset of UK society. Many of those in charge of delivering these goals are now gone. Since the COP26 summit, Net Zero has also been added as a policy priority, just as energy costs and inflation have pushed the Cost of Living Crisis centre stage. The culture war the Prime Minister should be worrying about most is between the policy paralysis of departments and ministers and the No 10 demand for policy momentum.

It is against this backdrop that business has a real opportunity to influence government as it determines its future trajectory of travel. The new set up in No 10 will undoubtedly take some time to bed in, whilst the spectre of a leadership challenge to the Prime Minister lingering in the background at least for now. From cutting NHS waiting lists to easing cost of living pressures, from speeding up the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) to regenerating towns and cities, No 10 is more open to new ideas than any time outside of manifesto development ahead of a general election.

Put quite simply, the Government – and the Prime Minister - needs quick wins and fast.

What Happens Next?

With the upheaval in Downing Street personnel, it is important to clarify that there are still several hurdles to clear if a formal challenge to Johnson’s leadership is to take place:

1. 54 letters of no confidence are required from Conservative Members of Parliament in order to trigger a vote of no confidence
2. At any future confidence vote, over half the Conservative Parliamentary Party would need to vote against the Prime Minister – this number currently stands at 180
3. If the Prime Minister survives the vote, he would be safe from another leadership challenge for another 12 months as per the rules of the 1922 backbench committee of Conservative MPs
4. If the threshold is met, then Boris Johnson would be ousted from office as leader of the party, but would remain Prime Minister whilst the contest to determine who would replace him as Leader of the Conservative Party was underway
5. Once the Conservative Party chose a new leader, it would be expected that they become Prime Minister shortly after that